According to a recent report published by real estate data provider ATTOM, commercial real estate foreclosures have increased in March, indicating the struggles faced by the market. The number of foreclosures reached 625, which is a 6% rise from February and a significant 117% jump from the same period last year.
California recorded the highest number of commercial foreclosures, with 187 properties in March. However, there was an 8% decrease compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, it was a shocking 405% increase compared to the previous year. Other states such as New York, Florida, Texas, and New Jersey also experienced notable increases in commercial foreclosures.
The commercial real estate market started to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates and the shift towards remote work. Since May 2020, foreclosures have been steadily rising, following a record low of 141 properties. During the COVID-19 pandemic, lenders offered commercial loan forbearance to support struggling businesses. However, as those agreements expired and the economy faced new challenges, including higher interest rates and decreased demand for office space due to remote work policies, the commercial real estate market has struggled.
One of the factors contributing to the market’s instability is the $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt due by the end of 2025. Steeper borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions, and declining property values, influenced by remote work, have increased the risk of default. Approximately $929 billion worth of commercial real estate loans are set to mature this year. Borrowers may be forced to refinance at higher interest rates or sell their properties at a loss.
It is important to note that small and regional banks play a significant role in the commercial real estate market, holding about 80% of its outstanding debt. Last year, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank intensified the upheaval within the financial sector. Concerns have emerged that the turmoil could result in more restrictive lending standards.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that while commercial real estate challenges may lead to some bank failures, they do not pose a significant threat to the overall financial system. However, it is expected that the issues in the commercial real estate market will persist for years to come, requiring continuous attention and management.
根据房地产数据提供商ATTOM的最新报告，商业房地产的被收回数量在3月份有所增加，说明市场面临的困境。被收回的数量达到625宗，比2月份增长了6%，比去年同期增加了117%。
加利福尼亚州记录了最多的商业房地产被收回数量，3月份有187宗。然而，与上个月相比下降了8%。尽管如此，与去年同期相比增加了惊人的405%。纽约、佛罗里达、德克萨斯和新泽西等其他州也出现了显著增加的商业房地产被收回数量。
商业房地产市场在利率上升和远程办公的转变的重压下开始出现问题。自2020年5月以来，被收回数量一直在稳步上升，达到纪录低点141宗。在COVID-19大流行期间，贷款人提供了商业贷款宽限期，以支持陷入困境的企业。然而，随着这些协议到期和经济面临新的挑战，包括较高的利率和因远程办公政策导致办公空间需求下降，商业房地产市场陷入困境。
导致市场不稳定的因素之一是到2025年底到期的1.5万亿美元的商业抵押贷款债务。更高的借款成本、更严格的信贷条件和远程办公带来的房地产价值下降增加了违约风险。今年有约9290亿美元的商业房地产贷款将到期。借款人可能不得不以较高的利率进行再融资或亏本出售物业。
值得注意的是，小型和地区银行在商业房地产市场中起着重要作用，持有约80%的未偿还债务。去年，硅谷银行的崩溃加剧了金融部门的动荡。人们担心这种动荡可能导致更加严格的贷款标准。
美联储主席鲍威尔承认，尽管商业房地产的挑战可能导致一些银行破产，但它们并不对整体金融系统构成重大威胁。然而，预计商业房地产市场的问题将持续多年，需要持续关注和管理。
定义：
1. 商业房地产被收回：指商业用途的房地产贷款违约，导致资产被收回的情况。
2. 商业抵押贷款债务：指商业房地产所有者的抵押贷款债务。